Spatial Modelling of Climate-Induced Multi-Hazard Risk and Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Using GIS in the Western Himalayas, India

Abstract

Climate change has significantly intensified the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, particularly in fragile mountain ecosystems such as the Western Himalayas. This study aims to assess climate-induced multi-hazard risk and socio-environmental vulnerability in the Western Himalayan region of India, focusing on Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. A geospatial approach was employed to integrate climatic, topographic, and socio-economic factors for comprehensive risk modeling. Rainfall variability and landslide occurrences were analyzed to represent hazard conditions, while terrain characteristics and demographic indicators were used to evaluate vulnerability. All datasets were processed and integrated within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment, and a weighted overlay method was applied to generate a composite multi-hazard risk map. The results revealed significant spatial variability in hazard intensity and vulnerability, with high-risk zones concentrated in areas characterized by steep slopes, high rainfall intensity, and dense human settlements. The findings highlight the critical role of socio-environmental factors in amplifying disaster risk and emphasize the need for integrated assessment frameworks. The study demonstrates that GIS-based spatial modeling provides an effective tool for identifying disaster hotspots and supporting informed decision-making. The outcomes of this research are expected to contribute to disaster risk reduction strategies, sustainable land use planning, and climate adaptation policies in the Western Himalayan region.